Week 7 could be a pivotal moment for the Detroit Lions, as they face off against the Minnesota Vikings in what may be their most important game of the season.
With the NFC North looking highly competitive, both the Lions and Vikings are among the league’s top teams at the moment. The Vikings, anchored by a dominant defense that leads in most statistical categories, will be tested by a dynamic Lions offense that has scored 40+ points in consecutive games.
This matchup presents a classic clash of strengths, setting the stage for a thrilling “On Paper” analysis. Let’s dive into the Lions vs. Vikings matchup and make a prediction for Sunday.
Lions Passing Offense (12th in DVOA) vs. Vikings Pass Defense (1st)
After a rough start, Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing attack have found their rhythm, and the numbers are beginning to reflect the high level of performance seen over the past two and a half seasons. The contrast between Goff’s first two games and his last three is particularly striking:
The early struggles are tough to explain, as Goff’s poor play wasn’t necessarily linked to heavy pressure. It could just be chalked up to early-season rust. It’s not as though they faced elite defenses in those first games, and the recent success isn’t simply a result of weaker competition. The first two games seem to be an outlier.
Despite the slow start, the Lions are steadily climbing the rankings as one of the top passing offenses this year. They currently rank fourth in passer rating (107.6), first in yards per attempt (9.0), fifth in EPA per pass, and ninth in dropback success rate. These numbers suggest the DVOA ranking might be underestimating their current form. Right now, this offense is playing like a top-10 unit, perhaps even at a top-five level.
The Lions excel in multiple areas. Their pass protection is outstanding, ranking third in ESPN’s pass block win rate and eighth in Pro Football Focus grades. With the rise of receivers like Tim Patrick and Jameson Williams, they can threaten defenses at every level of the field.
While the Vikings’ pass defense has allowed significant yardage—ranking 30th in yards per game (263.0)—this stat is somewhat misleading. Much of the yardage is due to the Vikings often building large leads, forcing opponents to throw frequently. In fact, despite already having their bye week, Minnesota has faced the second-most passing attempts this season.
