When picking upsets in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament, historical data provides key insights into which lower-seeded teams are most likely to pull off a surprise victory. Here’s what the data suggests:
1. No. 13+ Seeds Are Rare, but Not Impossible
Only eight teams seeded No. 13 or lower have ever won a first-round game.
These teams often dominate their conference—with a combined record of 160-45 before the tournament.
Conference play success is a major indicator—these teams had a winning percentage of 83.9% in conference games.
Most of these teams had tournament experience, showing that upsets tend to come from teams familiar with the big stage.
2. Common Traits of Past Upset Teams
They were automatic qualifiers (AQs), meaning they won their conference tournament.
They were often the best team from their conference with a strong season record.
Many had multiple tournament appearances, indicating a program with sustained success.
3. How to Spot Potential Upsets in Your Bracket
Look for dominant mid-major teams that went undefeated or nearly so in conference play.
Prioritize teams that are consistent tournament contenders rather than first-time participants.
Consider matchup dynamics—an experienced lower seed facing a high seed with injuries or poor recent form could be primed for an upset.
4. Multiple Brackets Strategy
Given the unpredictability of March Madness, filling out multiple brackets increases the chance of landing a successful upset pick.
Balancing top seeds with strategic upsets is key—too many high-seed eliminations will likely break a bracket, but picking the right Cinderella run can be the difference-maker.
5. Could This Be the Year for a No. 15 Over No. 2?
A No. 15 seed has never beaten a No. 2 in the women’s tournament.
However, trends can always be broken—especially if a No. 15 seed is an AQ with a dominant record and experience.
Final Takeaway
Upsets seem unpredictable, but they often follow patterns. The best underdogs are battle-tested, dominant in their leagues, and have prior tournament experience. If you’re filling out a bracket, focusing on these trends will help you make smarter upset picks while balancing the risks.
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