The UConn men’s basketball team is facing mounting challenges, both in terms of its schedule and its NCAA Tournament seeding. The recent loss to Xavier, compounded by recurring defensive issues and struggles in close games, raises concerns about the team’s ability to establish itself as a high seed in the tournament. However, there are reasons for cautious optimism, particularly with the anticipated return of Liam McNeeley, who could provide a much-needed boost on both ends of the court.
Key Issues:
1. Close Game Struggles: UConn’s inability to execute in tight games has become a troubling trend. With 10 games decided by five points or fewer this season, compared to eight combined over the last two years, the team has struggled to close out critical moments.
2. Defensive Concerns: Ranked 132nd in defensive efficiency on KenPom, UConn’s defense has been a significant weakness. Poor one-on-one defense and costly turnovers continue to plague the Huskies.
3. Upcoming Schedule: The road ahead is daunting, with matchups against top-ranked Big East opponents like Marquette, Creighton, and St. John’s. These games could either bolster or derail UConn’s seeding outlook.
Positives:
1. Liam McNeeley’s Return: If McNeeley is cleared to return against DePaul, it gives UConn a chance to reintegrate him before tougher games. His presence could improve the team’s offensive flow and provide defensive stability.
2. Samson Johnson’s Impact: Johnson’s recent performances, including a career-high five blocks against Xavier, solidify his role as the starting center. His intensity and defensive contributions have been crucial, especially with Tarris Reed Jr. struggling.
3. Aidan Mahaney’s Progress: Mahaney’s ability to score and facilitate in key moments, especially late in the first half against Xavier, highlights his potential to be a difference-maker when paired with McNeeley.
NCAA Tournament Outlook:
Despite the loss, UConn remains well-positioned within the NET rankings (No. 35) and is projected as a No. 6 or No. 8 seed by various models. Torvik projects the team to finish 21-10 overall, suggesting it can still solidify a respectable seed with strong performances in its remaining games. However, UConn’s seed could fall further if its close-game struggles persist or if it fails to capitalize on opportunities in Quad 1 matchups.
Analysis:
To improve its NCAA Tournament prospects, UConn must address its defensive lapses and find ways to execute in crunch time. McNeeley’s return could be a game-changer, especially if players like Mahaney and Johnson maintain their recent form. While the schedule ahead is challenging, it also presents opportunities to build a stronger resume. UConn’s ceiling remains high, but consistency and execution will be key to avoiding a disappointing seed—or worse, an early tournament exit.
