The Washington Commanders have put all of their hopes and dreams into rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
After winning the Heisman Trophy at LSU in 2023, Daniels easily won the starting job for the Commanders in training camp and has the keys to the offense in his hand headed into the season opener at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sept. 8.
While tying to figure out what kind of rookie season Daniels might have in store seems like an impossible task, but if we use history as our guide there are signs showing us what he could be capable of.
Bleacher Report’s David Kenyon ranked the 7 best seasons for NFL rookie quarterbacks dating back to 2015, with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott coming in at No. 1 for his 2016 rookie season.
How Daniels might line up with some of the quarterbacks on that list — specifically one of them — could tell us all we need to know about how 2024 might play out.
One Dual-Threat Rookie Quarterback Made List
Of the 7 quarterbacks who made Kenyon’s list, only one of them was a legitimate dual-threat quarterback in two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.
If the Commanders and Daniels succeed in 2024, it would be hard to imagine them doing so without Daniels picking up big chunks of yardage running the ball. Daniels rushed for over 700 yards in each of his final 3 college seasons, including 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023.
“As a rookie, (Jackson) initially sat behind Joe Flacco,” Kenyon wrote. “But as the Ravens entered their bye week at 4-5, coach John Harbaugh made the uncomfortable decision to bench the long-time starter in favor of the rookie … Jackson ignited an offense that had mustered 3.6 yards per carry and 92.7 rushing yards per game. In his seven starts, the Ravens improved those numbers to 5.1 and 229.6, respectively, while notching a 6-1 record and climbing the standings to secure an AFC North title.”
In only 7 starts, Jackson rushed for 695 yards and 5 touchdowns and rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the next two seasons. Of the players who made the list, only San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy started less games than Jackson, going 5-0 in 2022.
Of the 5 other quarterbacks on the list — all full-time starters as rookies — only Prescott and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert ran for over 200 yards and had at least 5 rushing touchdowns as rookies. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had the best passing season of the group, with 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 2023.
Daniels threw for 3,812 yards, 4o touchdowns and 4 interceptions in just 12 games in 2023.
How Many Rookie Quarterbacks Will Start in 2024
By the final week of the preseason, 3 of the 6 quarterbacks taken in the first round had won starting jobs for their teams — No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams with the Chicago Bears, Daniels and No. 12 overall pick Bo Nix with the Denver Broncos.
J.J. McCarthy, the No. 10 overall pick by the Minnesota Vikings, is out for the season with a meniscus tear and No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. will start the season as a backup to Kirk Cousins on the Atlanta Falcons.
No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye was still competing with veteran Jacoby Brissett to start for the New England Patriots.
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