The 2024 NASCAR Playoffs continue this Saturday with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, where the field will be narrowed from 16 drivers to 12. The race kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET, featuring 500 laps on the famous 0.533-mile short track.
Denny Hamlin, who has won the last two races at Bristol, is favored with 4-1 odds. Kyle Larson (9-2), Christopher Bell (6-1), Ty Gibbs (8-1), and Brad Keselowski (9-1) also have strong chances.
Before locking in predictions, NASCAR DFS lineups, or props on platforms like DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, or Underdog Fantasy, check out the latest picks from SportsLine’s proven model. Created by daily Fantasy expert and predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the NASCAR prediction model simulates races 10,000 times, considering factors like track history and recent performance.
The model has accurately predicted multiple winners since 2021, including Kyle Larson in Las Vegas this year (21-5 odds) and Denny Hamlin’s Bristol (5-1) and Richmond (17-4) victories. So far, it has nailed 18 winners, with three in the first seven races this season.
The model is currently high on Chase Elliott, who is a longshot at 18-1. Elliott, sitting seventh in the standings with a 30-point buffer, has a strong track record at Bristol, including eight top-10 finishes in 14 starts. He has consistently performed well in the Bristol Night Race, finishing as high as second in the last six seasons.
Meanwhile, Christopher Bell, despite being a Vegas favorite and leading the standings, is projected to miss the top five.
With a 56-point lead, Bell is nearly assured of advancing to the next round and may not push as hard, leaving focus on teammates Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., who are both below the cut line.
