In the 2025 Food City 500 on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway, Denny Hamlin will want to extend his winning streak to three races after spending 31 races without a victory. After winning two of the last three races at the most recognizable short track on the NASCAR season, Hamlin is the +490 co-favorite in this week’s NASCAR at Bristol odds. Kyle Larson has joined him at the top of FanDuel Sportsbook’s 2025 Food City 500 odds board. The other leading NASCAR at Bristol candidates are Chase Elliott (+900), Ryan Blaney (+750), and Christopher Bell (+600). The race is set for 500 laps over the steeply banked, 0.533-mile oval course, with the green flag dropping at 3 p.m. ET.
See the most recent 2025 NASCAR at Bristol predictions from SportsLine’s tested projection model before making any 2025 Food City 500 selections, locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, or entering any NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel. This unique NASCAR prediction model, created by SportsLine predictive data engineer and daily Fantasy pro Mike McClure, runs every race 10,000 times while accounting for variables including circuit history and previous outcomes. The model was bullish on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona and started the 2025 season by picking Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payoff at the Clash at Bowman Gray. Then it made a +350 payout prediction for Kyle Larson’s victory in Miami.
It correctly anticipated Denny Hamlin’s victories in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4 in 2024, and it correctly forecasted Larson’s victory in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout. Additionally, it flawlessly predicted five of Larson’s victories throughout his historic 2021 campaign. Overall, since 2021, the model has correctly predicted 20 winners, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races of the previous season. There could have been enormous profits for anyone who followed its example on sportsbooks and betting apps for those NASCAR choices. At this point, the model ran 10,000 simulations of the Food City 500 2025. To view the full projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, visit SportsLine.
