Editor’s note: Projection updated after Saturday’s on-track action and lineup set by rulebook:

Paint Scheme Preview: 2024 Michigan International Speedway

Ford has won nine consecutive NASCAR Cup Series races at Michigan International Speedway, which is a big deal for the manufacturer with just three races left in the regular season and a handful of blue ovals seeking to grab one of the final four playoff spots.

Last season, Ford made up four of the top-10 finishers in the Irish Hills, with Chris Buescher snagging his second victory in a stretch that saw him win three of the last five races in the 2023 regular season. With Chris Buescher three points below the elimination line, can he go back-to-back at the 2-mile oval to guarantee a spot in the playoffs or will the top dogs dominate the show? Let’s take a deep dive into how Racing Insights sees Sunday’s race playing out (2:30 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

Kyle Larson is still the betting favorite for Sunday’s race, and for fair reason — he’s won three events at Michigan and has finished no worse than seventh in his last four events at the track. After initially giving the slight edge to Larson’s on-track rival Denny Hamlin, who has finished no worse than sixth at the 2-mile oval since 2019 and owns two victories at the facility, Racing Insights moved Larson to the top spot after Saturday’s brief on-track action.

Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and William Byron make up the projected top five, with Byron replacing Christopher Bell in the fifth spot. Reddick, Blaney and Bell had separate issues in last year’s event. Reddick had issues on pit road, Bell spun and wrecked early despite finishing 13th and Blaney had an on-track tilt with Corey LaJoie.

Sunday will be pivotal for Larson, Reddick and Chase Elliott as the three are separated by just six points for the regular-season title. With Daytona and the grueling pressure cooker in the Southern 500 looming to close the regular season, Michigan offers the most opportunity for drivers to have control of their destiny. Last season, Larson was the only one of the three to finish in the top 5 and on the lead lap after Reddick’s woes and Elliott wrecking out early.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

BRAD KESELOWSKI: The 2012 Cup Series champion is winless in 26 starts at Michigan, but RFK Racing as a whole will be the team to watch this weekend as Buescher looks to finally break through in 2024. On top of Buescher’s thrilling victory in 2023, Keselowski finished fourth.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: After an engine failure early in the final stage at Richmond, Truex really needs a quality performance Sunday to solidify his playoff position on points. He is a four-time runner-up at Michigan, including last year, but has yet to win at the 2-mile facility.

BUBBA WALLACE: Four top 10s in the last five races have put Wallace into the postseason picture by three points over both Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher. Bigger ovals have played into the No. 23 driver’s hands in his Cup career, and Michigan could be the place where Wallace snaps a 66-race winless drought. Eight drivers have snapped a winless streak of at least 41 races at Michigan.

TODD GILLILAND: Ford’s tendency to bring really fast cars to the manufacturer’s home track could mean a big weekend in store for Front Row Motorsports. With FRM now a Tier 1 organization under Ford and in a technical alliance with Team Penske, both the No. 34 of Michael McDowell and the No. 38 could have top-10 speed, or even race-winning speed on Sunday.

ERIK JONES: Heading to his home state, Jones always seems to be an outside contender at Michigan. He owns two consecutive top 10s at the track, and a third could garner a massive boost of momentum before heading to Daytona and Darlington, where he’s won events at both.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.