Many all-time greats have failed to win a Kentucky Derby trophy, the Holy Grail of thoroughbred racing. The record for Derby futility is held by Steve Asmussen, the most successful trainer in North American history (0-for-26). For decades, Godolphin and Coolmore, two superpowers, have been unsuccessfully vying for the Derby. On the other hand, owners, riders, and trainers have all won it the first time. It’s impossible to tell. In an overflow field, which typically has 20 horses, chance plays a significant part in creating traffic issues and unpleasant journeys. Regardless of the horse’s skill, it will not win if it is unfortunate. Even an 80-1 shot can pose with roses, like Rich Strike did three years ago, if it gets the breaks.
Who is going to win the Roses’ 2025 Run?
(Fun facts: The Derby is an odd competition in which the winner occasionally loses. The 2023 hero Mage, Country House (2019), Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), or Orb (2013) did not, nor did Rich Strike. Mystik Dan, the 18-1 stunner from last year, is now 0-for-4.) As befits its reputation, the Derby is also the race that is obsessively studied worldwide. Obsessive attention is paid to every previous performance line, yet as the wise man once observed, “Think long, think wrong.” Avoid the mistake of making the problem too complicated. Don’t make up excuses to promote futile longshots. Avoid attempting to make it into an equation that determines the winner on its own. Neither strategy makes logical. Why not handle the Derby like any other race, notwithstanding its uniqueness? Estimate as best you can how the pace will unfold and who it should benefit or harm. Sort the field into the most likely winners, the runner-ups, and the no-hopers, then wish for the best. If you’re mistaken, there is only one race, even if it is the most highly regarded.
