The NFL postseason begins Saturday and promises to be an epic opening weekend with six games over three days.
So who will reign supreme? Can the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins find their offense? With Mike McCarthy facing his former team, the Packers, and Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit, who will come out on top? And which team has the best chance of making the playoffs and winning? The Ringer’s NFL staff makes their playoff picks below.
Nora Princiotti:
The battle between two of the NFL’s most complete teams comes down to the best quarterback. Lamar Jackson is the presumed MVP who will make a remarkable leap from being largely neglected last offseason to becoming a Super Bowl champion.
We saw this game on Christmas night when the Ravens won 33-19. I don’t think the rematch will be much different. Despite the 49ers’ superior skill set, Mike McDonald’s defense is perfect for putting Brock Purdy in the blender, and there’s more to come from Jackson and the rest of Baltimore’s new offense. More than enough firepower to utilize it.
The big question: How would Kyle Shanahan react if he lost his third Super Bowl to an elite passer while working with a quarterback manager (including while serving as coordinator in Atlanta)?
Shale Kapadia:
Things are going to have to get weird for the Bills to finally win the Super Bowl. This often happens when a team breaks a championship drought. We saw this with the Boston Red Sox in 2004. They had to overcome a 0-3 deficit against the New York Yankees to advance to the World Series.
We saw this with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017. Backup quarterback Nick Foles gave up 41 points against a defense coached by Bill Belichick. What’s stranger than a Bills team finally overcoming adversity?
This group was 6-6 and looking dismal just over halfway through the season. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator. They had all kinds of injuries on defense. Their director is literally mired in controversy over the events of 9/11!
The Bills are a truly ridiculous team. Even during a five-game winning streak to close the season, they had trouble picking up wins against Easton Stick and Bailey Zappe. But if they bring their A game (huge!), they can beat anyone.
I’m not saying I’m sure this will happen. No one would be surprised if Mason Rudolph beats Buffalo in the wild card round. But I’ve been telling people all season not to give up on the Bills, so why stop now?
Stephen Ruiz:
I always break my promise to pick the Chiefs for the Super Bowl. I’ve seen enough. No juice this year. But Baltimore has it on both sides of the ball.
The Ravens have the league’s MVP quarterback and the best defensive coordinator in the league leading other units. The Ravens are the most balanced team in the league.
They looked like the best team in the league over the past two months and embarrassed every opponent they faced during the regular season. It’s Baltimore’s year.
(And I swear I will never play against the Chiefs again if they somehow win. It’s real this time.)
Ben Solak:
I’m not afraid of a playoff disappointment for the Ravens. That’s not how Lamar has played this season. He is a mature passer and discerning runner who seems to have a solution to every problem a defense can present.
That’s not how this defense works, as it has depth and an abundance of role players that can dictate matchups for any offense.
The Crows are well-balanced, well-coached and in the best position in the game.
I’m much more scared of picking the Lions to leave the NFC, but I think this conference will give us the most drama this year.
The Niners are a strong team, but I’m always skeptical of Purdy’s ability to survive in the playoffs. Detroit is far from a perfect team, but I think their offense is just as dangerous as the postseason and their defense could be overheated. Danny Kelly: The Ravens are an unstoppable force. Jackson is a dynamic dual-threat playmaker who has taken his game to a whole new level this year and is a nightmare for his opposing defenses. He operates under full control as a passer and runner in Todd Monken’s new offense. The team play of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill could finish off drives and close the game. Defensively, McDonald had a team that completely embarrassed opposing quarterbacks and finished the regular season allowing 16.5 points per game, the lowest in the league. Add in an always-on-point team unit led by Justin Tucker, and it will be hard to find a hole in this Ravens team. According to DVOA, Baltimore ranks as one of the best and most complete regular season teams of the last 40 years. I think dominance and balance in all three phases will lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory.
Danny Heifetz: The Ravens have the best defense in the league. They have a top-notch offense. In an AFC where seemingly every team is playing below their potential, Baltimore is near the top on both sides of the ball. It seems impossible to choose between Baltimore and San Francisco, and honestly, despite losing to Baltimore, the 49ers were the better team this season. But I believe this Ravens team and Lamar will be successful.
Lindsay Jones: Yes, I know the Ravens beat the 49ers when the two teams met on Christmas night. I don’t think Shanahan will let that happen again. The Ravens were the DVOA favorite, but the team I have the most confidence in this postseason is the 49ers. If their offensive lineup arrives in Las Vegas healthy and their core of Purdy, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk make it through all four quarters of the game, they will be nearly impossible to win. Shanahan has come close to winning several times, but this year he has the plan and lineup to finally break through.
Austin Gayle: The Bills and Ravens have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Chiefs, as does the 49ers in the NFC. Patrick Mahomes had the worst statistical season of his career. Kansas City’s pass catchers are a liability and Travis Kelce no longer has the power to carry the group on his back. The offense finished the season averaging minus-0.10 EPA per drive, the fifth-worst of any Andy Reid offense this millennium.
But I still can’t do it. I can’t destroy Mahomes. He’s still the best defender in the league and is playing the best defense of his career. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit finished the season ranked third in points allowed per trip (1.51), behind the Ravens and Browns. In the previous year of the Mahomes era, the Chiefs had never finished a season better than 13th in this metric. Mahomes will have more margin for error than ever (and he’ll need it). I’ll bet on this any day of the week.
Danny Kelly:
The Ravens are an unstoppable force. Jackson is a dynamic dual-threat playmaker who has taken his game to a whole new level this year and is a nightmare for his opposing defenses.
He operates under full control as a passer and runner in Todd Monken’s new offense. The team play of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill could finish off drives and close the game.
Defensively, McDonald had a team that completely embarrassed opposing quarterbacks and finished the regular season allowing 16.5 points per game, the lowest in the league.
Add in an always-on-point team unit led by Justin Tucker, and it will be hard to find a hole in this Ravens team. According to DVOA, Baltimore ranks as one of the best and most complete regular season teams of the last 40 years. I think dominance and balance in all three phases will lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory.
Danny Heifetz:
The Ravens have the best defense in the league. They have a top-notch offense. In an AFC where seemingly every team is playing below their potential, Baltimore is near the top on both sides of the ball.
It seems impossible to choose between Baltimore and San Francisco, and honestly, despite losing to Baltimore, the 49ers were the better team this season. But I believe this Ravens team and Lamar will be successful.
Lindsay Jones:
Yes, I know the Ravens beat the 49ers when the two teams met on Christmas night. I don’t think Shanahan will let that happen again. The Ravens were the DVOA favorite, but the team I have the most confidence in this postseason is the 49ers.
If their offensive lineup arrives in Las Vegas healthy and their core of Purdy, Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk make it through all four quarters of the game, they will be nearly impossible to win.
Shanahan has come close to winning several times, but this year he has the plan and lineup to finally break through.
Austin Gayle:
The Bills and Ravens have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Chiefs, as does the 49ers in the NFC. Patrick Mahomes had the worst statistical season of his career.
Kansas City’s pass catchers are a liability and Travis Kelce no longer has the power to carry the group on his back. The offense finished the season averaging minus-0.10 EPA per drive, the fifth-worst of any Andy Reid offense this millennium.
But I still can’t do it. I can’t destroy Mahomes. He’s still the best defender in the league and is playing the best defense of his career. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit finished the season ranked third in points allowed per trip (1.51), behind the Ravens and Browns.
In the previous year of the Mahomes era, the Chiefs had never finished a season better than 13th in this metric. Mahomes will have more margin for error than ever (and he’ll need it). I’ll bet on this any day of the week.