The 49ers head into the conference championship having not played their best football in over seven weeks when they beat the Eagles. San Francisco will need to match that level of performance again Sunday against Detroit to reach the Super Bowl.
In a nod to the season, the Niners have a lead of seven over the Lions. The trenches are essential. Some matchups are a win if the Niners can simply avoid disaster, others must be won through critical defeats to win the game.
Jonah Jackson, a left fielder for Detroit, is out with a knee injury. He was selected to the 2022 Pro Bowl and was ranked the fifth best offensive tackle in the divisional round by Pro Football Focus. Kayide Awosika, a second-year pro that Detroit acquired from the Eagles’ practice squad as an undrafted free agent in September, will take his place.
Frank Ragnow, an All-Pro center, is dealing with back, ankle, knee and toe injuries. Despite his injuries, he was fully functional in Friday’s practice. Jahmyr Gibbs was patiently developed by Detroit, who waited for the ideal opportunity to properly insert him into the league. That time is now. DVOA compares output by down and distance to league average. On defense, a lower number is preferable.
The 49ers’ defensive ends do a poor job of establishing the lead, and last week’s safeties struggled to stop the run. The Lions, like the Niners, often run short three sets of wide receivers and prefer to use their skill players as blockers.
To position their OL against the secondary, Detroit’s receivers go after the front seven. To make the tackle and throw the ball, the Niners must be adept at clearing blocks in this play. Additionally, they will be looking for big performances from Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave in the match against Ragnow and Awosika. Gibbs totaled 114 yards of offense against Tampa Bay, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. Gibbs is a strength for Detroit against the Niners’ biggest defensive weakness, so the Niners need to keep him in check.
Strength upon strength is what passes. With over 25% of his passes in the middle of the field, Jared Goff led the league in pass attempts. But when it comes to coverage up the middle, the Niners lead the league.
With a high-low style of play in the red zone and receiving targets placed approximately every five yards, Ben Johnson designs his offense to stack the field vertically. On second and third down, he also likes deep zones with open routes to release Sam LaPorta underneath.
The Niners must play zone coverage with great discipline. The Niners’ security needs to be tight because Johnson has plenty of opportunities to exploit San Francisco’s linebackers. Logan Ryan, who struggled to score points against the Packers, is expected to be replaced in the starting lineup by Ji’Ayir Brown.
Nick Bosa will take on All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell in a great fight. Wilks can try to use more regular antics to pit Bosa against Ragnow and Awosika, as Ragnow is blocked laterally. While Goff’s performance has improved despite the pressure since moving to Detroit, it’s still an issue as he ranks mid-table in this regard.
Goff’s terrible footwork in avoiding pressure is his problem. Since Goff leads the league in QBR when he operates from the pocket, San Francisco needs to apply pressure. The Niners’ front four shouldn’t be as exposed as they were against Green Bay. Amon-Ra St. Brown is moved by the Lions and Detroit is looking to acquire Ambry Thomas. Jameson Williams could also target Thomas deep, although Goff ranks 30th in the league in depth percentage.
The Lions plan to let Gibbs move away and attack St. Brown and LaPorta up the middle. To eliminate run-and-play action, the Niners will look to take a lead in the second half. Converting red zone touchdowns and turnovers will be crucial. Detroit has the fifth best red zone defense.
Goff has been intercepted in four straight games by the Niners, including three pick-sixes. Brock Purdy’s first priority is to play clean. The Niners can’t afford to give up short fields to the Lions and turn the ball over with Detroit so powerful in the red zone. In games where Purdy doesn’t pick, the 49ers are undefeated.
Right tackle Colton McKivitz faces Detroit star Aidan Hutchinson, who has eight sacks and eighteen pressures in his last four games, in a worrying matchup.
McKivitz, 6-foot-1, is used to having a height advantage, but Hutchinson is faster, more skilled and an inch taller. Hutchinson uses spinning maneuvers to counter McKivitz’s use of powerful hands to win. Chris Foerster and Kyle Shanahan will need to come up with a pass protection plan that will provide help to McKivitz.
This year, they managed to neutralize Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons. Even though this was already early in the season, T.J. Watt had three sacks. Hutchinson, a trip to the Super Bowl is currently up for grabs.
Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn ranks fourth in the league in blitz frequency. Ife Melifonwu, a safety, is their most powerful blitzer; he has 4.5 sacks over the last six games. In the game against Baltimore, the Niners struggled to take corners. With Brandon Aiyuk leading the league in yards per reception while the quarterback is under pressure, the 49ers have the league’s best pressure offense.
Detroit’s secondary is weak; He ranks 30th in yards against wide receivers and yards against per dropback. It’s also important to note that Detroit ranks 28th in missed tackles, although Deebo Samuel is expected to play. Although Lions outside corners Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor are vulnerable, rookie Brian Branch is a standout cornerback for the team. Detroit has allowed its top receiver to catch nearly 10 passes for 178 yards per game and over 373 yards over the last five games.
Purdy and Aiyuk perform well against man coverage, but Detroit has the sixth-highest man coverage percentage in the league. Detroit had the best defensive DVOA in the league, allowing just 11 big plays of 15 yards or more. Shanahan should still be able to enter the race regardless. The NFL’s top left tackle in the running game is Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing, and the Niners’ receivers are the best blocking group.
It should be profitable to test strength against strength. Now that Gibbs has been let go, Detroit’s offense poses a significant threat. The Niners’ four forwards now have a chance to disrupt Detroit’s running game and get to Goff thanks to Jonah Jackson’s injury. The Niners’ significant investment in the defensive line should pay dividends on the downs that matter most in this game. Offensively, the Niners will win if Hutchinson can be neutralized, but he’s playing some of his best games right now.
There is an obvious disconnect between Detroit’s secondary and the Niners’ receivers. Purdy and Aiyuk are on the safe side if Glenn tries to change that. That’s a high score in my opinion, and Detroit is unable to get the game-winning stop